Putin and Modi to Meet During Politically Treacherous Times for Moscow & New Delhi

When the Russian President visited India four years ago, the global landscape was markedly different. The brief visit, curtailed by the pandemic, centered around discussions on strategic and defense cooperation between the two leaders.

Months later, the full-scale invasion of its neighbor would transform the Russian leader into a global pariah, greatly limiting his overseas engagements.

Furthermore, that period came before a major change in US-India relations, marked by inflammatory statements and the imposition of substantial trade tariffs.

"In this context, the importance of this diplomatic mission to meet Modi cannot be overstated, serving as a signal of enduring ties and a rejection of outside coercion," experts emphasize.

A Critical Juncture for Both Nations

The high-level meeting takes place at a delicate moment. President Putin arrives following rejecting latest peace proposals for Ukraine, bolstered by reported advances by Russian forces.

"For Russia, the key significance of this visit is its simple happening," commented a prominent analyst based in Moscow. "It suggests a return to something resembling routine global diplomacy."

For India, the risks are particularly elevated. The country faces a difficult geopolitical climate, characterized by a semi-isolationist United States, a diminished Russia, and an increasingly powerful China.

This delicate balance was highlighted just before the visit, when senior Western diplomats published a public commentary criticizing Russia's peace efforts. This prompted a sharp rebuke from Indian officials, who called it an unacceptable interference.

'China Remains the Greatest Threat'

The India-Russia bond originates from the Soviet period and remains firmly rooted, with Moscow long being Delhi's primary arms provider. This relationship was generally accepted by the West before a recent shift.

Over time, Western nations overlooked India's large-scale buying of discounted Russian oil. However, in the wake of failed peace efforts, pressure mounted, leading to economic penalties and a major chill in US-India ties.

"Consequently, India has returned to its default strategy of maintaining multiple options," explained a foreign policy expert. "It signals to the US that it has alternatives and is waiting to see how the global dynamics settle."

Apart from global diplomacy, India's fundamental concern with Russia is geography. "China continues to be the primary security challenge to India, and historically, India has relied on Russia as a continental balancer against China," the analyst added.

The strengthening partnership between Russia and China has raised alarms in Delhi, prompting efforts to avoid an excessively close bond between its adversary and its longtime partner.

This concern has also spurred India's drive to diversify its military imports, shrinking its reliance on Russian equipment from about 70% to a reduced portion in recent years.

"India will attempt to find a middle ground: buy sufficient Russian weaponry to maintain the alliance, but avoid so dependent that a supply disruption would cripple its defenses," the analyst concluded.

Energy and Economic Ties

Increased economic cooperation is likely to be a key agenda item. The Russian leader has recently emphasized plans to take cooperation with India to a "qualitatively new level", in spite of Western sanctions.

The issue of energy imports remains pivotal. Although the Indian government has vowed to keep buying Russian oil, recent restrictions have dampened activity from the private sector. Simultaneously, India has agreed to increase imports of US energy.

A Russian official admitted "obstacles" in energy trade but insisted it would continue without major disruption. The official minimized the impact of sanctions, claiming they would cause only "minor" and "temporary" drops and that Russia possesses the "technology" to bypass such measures.

Diplomatic Constraints

When the two leaders sit down, the topic of Ukraine is likely to be addressed mainly through India's consistent appeal for a peaceful resolution.

"While the Indian leader can speak to all parties, the nation does not possess the necessary leverage to alter the course of the conflict," the analyst noted. "Beyond urging negotiations, its capacity to make a difference is constrained."

In the end, notwithstanding the public displays of camaraderie between the two leaders, the partnership is fundamentally one of "pure realpolitik," guided by national interest in a rapidly changing world.